Spain — Belgium

SoFi Stadium witnessed a quarter-final the scoreboard eventually told correctly — but for long stretches, the game itself was telling a very different story. Spain 2–1 Belgium. And yet the xG reads 2.08 to 0.37. Keep that number close. Here is the open loop: Belgium had exactly one big chance across ninety minutes, converted it, and somehow made this a quarter-final until the eighty-eighth minute. How does a side outgunned in every metric nearly pull off one of the tournament's great heists? Spain were dominant the way only this generation can be — 68 percent possession, 90 percent pass accuracy, 17 shots. Fabián Ruiz opened the scoring on 30 minutes with a driving late run into the box. The xG house was being built comfortably. Then, two minutes before the break, Charles De Ketelaere reminded everyone why Belgium brought him here — a clinical finish from their solitary big chance, and suddenly 1–1 at the whistle. Spain's weakness laid bare: for all their control, they allowed Belgium to breathe by losing concentration at the worst possible moment. Belgium's second-half problem was structural. With only 26 percent possession and Thibaut Courtois — their best performer, rating 8.19, six saves — forced off injured on 71 minutes, the dam was always going to break. He was extraordinary while he lasted. Belgium brought on Romelu Lukaku for physicality, fouled 18 times, and fought with everything they had. But the pressing shape collapsed and Spain recycled relentlessly. Pedri and Nico Williams sharpened Spain after the break. And then Mikel Merino, two minutes after coming on at 86, headed Spain into the semi-finals on 88 minutes. A man who arrives late and arrives decisive. The xG does not lie: correct result, delivered 87 minutes too late for Spanish comfort. On FootLegion, every goal your country scores at this World Cup lives forever — no one takes it away from you. Now — was De Ketelaere's equalizer a genuine tactical warning Spain's defence ignored, or pure individual brilliance that deserved no answer? And can Spain actually win this tournament while living so dangerously?